Progress or decline of the Covid-19 epidemic is assessed by the R0 value, the average number of people infected by one infected person. Values known so far are: China (Wuhan) 0.1, Germany 0.7, Italy 0.8. A new generation of infected people according to the R0 value will appear roughly every week. The very small value from Wuhan indicates a rapid extinction of the virus to the point at which containment can be reasserted and any sporadic outbreaks suppressed. With its R0 around 0.8 Italy has only managed to halve the number of disease cases in the four weeks after the peak of infections.